2011 NCAA Football Odds: Michigan State Spartans Preview

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

2011 NCAA Football Odds: Michigan State Spartans Preview - Mark Dantonio

2010 Season
Overall: 11-2
Vs Top 25: 2-2

Heading into the 2010 season, few expected much more than a bowl bid for the Michigan State Spartans. With Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa all ranked and choice to contend of the Big Ten, few thought Michigan State would do more than the usual 6-8 wins it has averaged under Mark Dantonio.

Despite the low expectations, Dantonio’s team displayed a remarkable knack for pulling off wins in close games and took advantage of not having to face Ohio State and posted an incredible 11-1 regular season record that landed them in a three way tie for the Big Ten Championship. Even though they suffered an embarrassing bowl loss to Alabama, Dantonio’s Spartans earned national respect for overachieving and now have increased expectations with much of that team returning in 2011. The question is, how much of the "magic" they had in late games can be recreated in 2011?

Kirk Cousins was a relatively unheralded quarterback before among Big Ten quarterbacks coming into 2010, but now he’s the unquestioned leader of the Spartans’ offense entering his senior season. Cousins threw for 2,825 yards and 20 touchdowns last season and should put up even bigger numbers in 2011. He can expect to put up big numbers because virtually all of his targets from 2010 return. Keshawn Martin, BJ Cunningam, and Keith Nichol all saw significant playing time in 2010. Cunningham caught nine touchdowns and is the biggest returning threat. Brian Linthicum takes over at tight end but even he caught 18 passes last season in a reserve role.

For all of the emphasis on the improved passing game, however, Michigan State Spartans will still earn its wins on the back of its running game. The Spartans certainly have the horses for it. All six of the teams leading rushers from a year ago return, giving them the opportunity to platoon their backs and keep them all fresh. Edwin Baker rushed for 1201 yards and 13 touchdowns while LeVeon Bell added 605 yards and another 8 touchdowns. Baker is the powerful, between the tackles runner while Bell is the homerun threat. The challenge in establishing the running game will come in replacing three of five offensive line starters. Only guards Chris McDonald and Joel Foreman return.

The picture on defense is a bit murkier for Dantonio. Whereas the offense returns its key pieces and has replacements to make on the line, the defense loses its four unquestioned leaders but should be solid along the line. Defensive tackles Jerel Worthy and Kevin Pickelman are a load inside. Worthy led the team in sacks last season which is rare for a defensive tackle. Tyler Hoover is an enormous defensive end at 6’7, 275 pounds. He’s stout against the run and is very difficult to move while also chipping in three sacks last season.

The biggest losses for the Spartans’ defense are in the back seven. Linebackers Greg Jones and Eric Gordon led the team in tackles and were the unquestioned leaders of a very good defense. With both now gone, only junior linebacker Chris Norman returns. Max Bullough will take over in the middle and, like, Jones, he’s a big, physical linebacker at 6’3, 240 pounds. Finding a replacement for Gordon on the outside will be difficult. In the secondary, Johnny Adams returns after an excellent sophomore season where he picked off three passes and broken up seven more. Trenton Robinson returns as free safety and is the team’s leading returning tackler. He also picked off four passes. As long as the pass rush up front is consistent, the secondary should be solid again in 2011.

The Spartans’ schedule, such an asset in 2010, will be significantly tougher in 2011. After tune-ups against Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic, they travel to face Notre Dame in South Bend. October features games at Ohio State, home against rival Michigan, home against Wisconsin, and at Nebraska. Few teams will face a more difficult month of October. November will be kinder as the Spartans draw Minnesota and Indiana at home and only travel to a rebuilding Iowa and Northwestern.

Bodog Sportsbook Odds to win the 2011-2012 BCS National Championship: 60/1

Michigan State Spartans 2011 - 2012 Schedules

DATE OPPONENT
09/03/2011 vs Western Michigan
09/10/2011 vs Notre Dame
09/17/2011 vs Eastern Michigan
09/24/2011 vs San Diego State
10/01/2011 vs Minnesota
10/08/2011 at Northwestern
10/15/2011 at Michigan State
10/29/2011 vs Purdue
11/05/2011 at Iowa
11/12/2011 at Illinois
11/19/2011 vs Nebraska
11/26/2011 vs Ohio State

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bj cunningam - brian linthicum - chris mcdonald - chris norman - edwin baker - eric gordon - greg jones - jerel worthy - joel foreman - johnny adams

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